Bassano Virtus 2–0 Treviso: Result & Stats

Bassano Virtus

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Treviso

11/12/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 11Stadio Rino Mercante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Bassano Virtus35%

×Draw28%

Treviso37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bassano VirtusExpected goals in this matchTreviso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.19

Bassano Virtus

1.15

Treviso

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

1.30

creates per match

1.55

0.83

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bassano Virtus

1.30

Treviso

1.55

allows per match

Bassano Virtus

0.83

Treviso

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Treviso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassano Virtus ↓

Treviso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bassano Virtus or draw

63%

Bassano Virtus or Treviso

72%

Draw or Treviso

65%

Winning margin

Bassano Virtus wins by 2+

14%

Treviso wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bassano Virtus 1+ goals

68%

Bassano Virtus 2+ goals

32%

Bassano Virtus 3+ goals

11%

Treviso 1+ goals

70%

Treviso 2+ goals

33%

Treviso 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)

49%

Treviso (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassano Virtus at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.83 · 53 matches

Treviso away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassano Virtus attack 1.30 + Treviso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Treviso attack 1.55 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bassano Virtus scores more

35%

level

28%

Treviso scores more

37%

Treviso at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff