Bassano Virtus 1–0 Mori Santo Stefano

Bassano Virtus

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mori Santo Stefano

L. Forte 18' (pen)

10/15/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 6Stadio Rino Mercante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bassano Virtus63%

×Draw23%

Mori Santo Stefano14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bassano VirtusExpected goals in this matchMori Santo Stefano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.68

Bassano Virtus

1.77

Mori Santo Stefano

0.68

Bassano Virtus creates 160% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

1.30

creates per match

0.53

0.83

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Bassano Virtus

1.30

Mori Santo Stefano

0.53

allows per match

Bassano Virtus

0.83

Mori Santo Stefano

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassano Virtus ↓

Mori Santo Stefano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bassano Virtus or draw

86%

Bassano Virtus or Mori Santo Stefano

77%

Draw or Mori Santo Stefano

37%

Winning margin

Bassano Virtus wins by 2+

37%

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bassano Virtus 1+ goals

83%

Bassano Virtus 2+ goals

53%

Bassano Virtus 3+ goals

26%

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals

49%

Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals

15%

Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)

82%

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassano Virtus at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.83 · 53 matches

Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassano Virtus attack 1.30 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.77

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bassano Virtus scores more

63%

level

23%

Mori Santo Stefano scores more

14%

Bassano Virtus at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bassano Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

L. FortePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff