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Bassano Virtus vs Montecchio Maggiore — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
FT
4 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
3/28/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 29Stadio Rino Mercante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Bassano Virtus44%
×Draw27%
Montecchio Maggiore29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bassano Virtus
1.38
Montecchio Maggiore
1.07

Bassano Virtus creates 29% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

creates per match

Bassano Virtus
1.30
Montecchio Maggiore
1.32

allows per match

Bassano Virtus
0.83
Montecchio Maggiore
1.45

finishing

Bassano Virtus+0.00on par
Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassano Virtus ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bassano Virtus or draw
71%
Bassano Virtus or Montecchio Maggiore
73%
Draw or Montecchio Maggiore
56%

Winning margin

Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
21%
Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
75%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
40%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
16%
Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
66%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
29%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
60%
Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassano Virtus at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.83 · 53 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassano Virtus attack 1.30 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bassano Virtus scores more
44%
level
27%
Montecchio Maggiore scores more
29%

Bassano Virtus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bassano Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Bassano Virtus 4–5 Montecchio Maggiore

Montecchio Maggiore beat Bassano Virtus 5-4 in Serie D - Girone C on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Rino Mercante in Bassano del Grappa.