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Bassam vs WAC — Ligue 1 2019

Bassam
Bassam
FT
0 – 1
WAC
WAC
3/3/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bassam41%
×Draw27%
WAC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bassam
1.34
WAC
1.13

Bassam creates 19% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bassam
0.98
WAC
1.00

allows per match

Bassam
1.25
WAC
1.70

finishing

Bassam+0.00on par
WAC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassam ↓

WAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bassam or draw
69%
Bassam or WAC
73%
Draw or WAC
59%

Winning margin

Bassam wins by 2+
19%
WAC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bassam 1+ goals
74%
Bassam 2+ goals
39%
Bassam 3+ goals
15%
WAC 1+ goals
68%
WAC 2+ goals
31%
WAC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bassam (draw refunded)
57%
WAC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassam at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

WAC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassam attack 0.98 + WAC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.34

WAC attack 1.00 + Bassam defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bassam scores more
41%
level
27%
WAC scores more
31%

Bassam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bassam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bassam vs WAC

WAC beat Bassam 1-0 in Ligue 1 on March 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.