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Bassam vs Issia Wazi — Ligue 1 2019

Bassam
Bassam
FT
2 – 1
Issia Wazi
Issia Wazi
10/27/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bassam37%
×Draw28%
Issia Wazi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bassam
1.19
Issia Wazi
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bassam
0.98
Issia Wazi
1.00

allows per match

Bassam
1.25
Issia Wazi
1.40

finishing

Bassam+0.00on par
Issia Wazi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassam ↓

Issia Wazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bassam or draw
66%
Bassam or Issia Wazi
72%
Draw or Issia Wazi
63%

Winning margin

Bassam wins by 2+
16%
Issia Wazi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bassam 1+ goals
70%
Bassam 2+ goals
33%
Bassam 3+ goals
12%
Issia Wazi 1+ goals
68%
Issia Wazi 2+ goals
31%
Issia Wazi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bassam (draw refunded)
52%
Issia Wazi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassam at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

Issia Wazi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassam attack 0.98 + Issia Wazi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Issia Wazi attack 1.00 + Bassam defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bassam scores more
37%
level
28%
Issia Wazi scores more
34%

Bassam at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bassam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bassam vs Issia Wazi

Bassam beat Issia Wazi 2-1 in Ligue 1 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.