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BASK vs Zvezdara — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

BASK
BASK
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zvezdara
Zvezdara
5/17/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 28Stadion Careva Ćuprija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

BASK44%
×Draw25%
Zvezdara31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BASK
1.52
Zvezdara
1.25

BASK creates 22% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 99 away

creates per match

BASK
1.59
Zvezdara
1.32

allows per match

BASK
1.18
Zvezdara
1.46

finishing

BASK+0.00on par
Zvezdara+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BASK ↓

Zvezdara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

BASK or draw
69%
BASK or Zvezdara
75%
Draw or Zvezdara
56%

Winning margin

BASK wins by 2+
22%
Zvezdara wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BASK 1+ goals
78%
BASK 2+ goals
45%
BASK 3+ goals
20%
Zvezdara 1+ goals
71%
Zvezdara 2+ goals
36%
Zvezdara 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

BASK (draw refunded)
58%
Zvezdara (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BASK at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

Zvezdara away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BASK attack 1.59 + Zvezdara defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zvezdara attack 1.32 + BASK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

BASK scores more
44%
level
25%
Zvezdara scores more
31%

BASK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "BASK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BASK vs Zvezdara

BASK beat Zvezdara 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Careva Ćuprija in Beograd.