BASK 4–0 Buducnost Dobanovci: Result & Stats

BASK

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Buducnost Dobanovci

6/1/2024

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 30Stadion Careva Ćuprija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

BASK45%

×Draw26%

Buducnost Dobanovci29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BASKExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Dobanovci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.14

BASK

1.48

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.14

BASK creates 30% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 43 away

1.59

creates per match

1.09

1.18

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

BASK

1.59

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.09

allows per match

BASK

1.18

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BASK+0.00on par

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BASK ↓

Buducnost Dobanovci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

BASK or draw

71%

BASK or Buducnost Dobanovci

74%

Draw or Buducnost Dobanovci

55%

Winning margin

BASK wins by 2+

22%

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

BASK 1+ goals

77%

BASK 2+ goals

43%

BASK 3+ goals

19%

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals

68%

Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals

32%

Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

BASK (draw refunded)

61%

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BASK at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

Buducnost Dobanovci away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BASK attack 1.59 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.09 + BASK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BASK scores more

45%

level

26%

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more

29%

BASK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BASK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff