BASK 1–1 BSK Batajnica: Result & Stats

BASK

FT

1 – 1

BSK Batajnica

10/11/2020

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 10Stadion Careva Ćuprija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BASK66%

×Draw20%

BSK Batajnica14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BASKExpected goals in this matchBSK Batajnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.85

BASK

2.08

BSK Batajnica

0.85

BASK creates 145% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 19 away

1.59

creates per match

0.53

1.18

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

BASK

1.59

BSK Batajnica

0.53

allows per match

BASK

1.18

BSK Batajnica

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BASK+0.00on par

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BASK ↓

BSK Batajnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

BASK or draw

86%

BASK or BSK Batajnica

80%

Draw or BSK Batajnica

34%

Winning margin

BASK wins by 2+

41%

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

BASK 1+ goals

87%

BASK 2+ goals

61%

BASK 3+ goals

34%

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals

57%

BSK Batajnica 2+ goals

21%

BSK Batajnica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

BASK (draw refunded)

82%

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BASK at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

BSK Batajnica away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BASK attack 1.59 + BSK Batajnica defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.08

BSK Batajnica attack 0.53 + BASK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

BASK scores more

66%

level

20%

BSK Batajnica scores more

14%

BASK at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "BASK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff