Bashundhara Kings 2–0 Team BJMC: Result & Stats

Bashundhara Kings

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Team BJMC

7/7/2019

Premier League · Round 20Sheikh Kamal Stadium (Nilphamari)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bashundhara Kings71%

×Draw18%

Team BJMC11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bashundhara KingsExpected goals in this matchTeam BJMC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.70

Bashundhara Kings

2.19

Team BJMC

0.70

Bashundhara Kings creates 213% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 12 away

2.62

creates per match

0.58

0.81

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Bashundhara Kings

2.62

Team BJMC

0.58

allows per match

Bashundhara Kings

0.81

Team BJMC

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bashundhara Kings+0.00on par

Team BJMC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bashundhara Kings ↓

Team BJMC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bashundhara Kings or draw

89%

Bashundhara Kings or Team BJMC

82%

Draw or Team BJMC

29%

Winning margin

Bashundhara Kings wins by 2+

47%

Team BJMC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bashundhara Kings 1+ goals

89%

Bashundhara Kings 2+ goals

64%

Bashundhara Kings 3+ goals

37%

Team BJMC 1+ goals

50%

Team BJMC 2+ goals

16%

Team BJMC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bashundhara Kings (draw refunded)

87%

Team BJMC (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bashundhara Kings at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.81 · 74 matches

Team BJMC away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bashundhara Kings attack 2.62 + Team BJMC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.19

Team BJMC attack 0.58 + Bashundhara Kings defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bashundhara Kings scores more

71%

level

18%

Team BJMC scores more

11%

Bashundhara Kings at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bashundhara Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff