Bashundhara Kings 3–0 Sheikh Jamal: Result & Stats

Bashundhara Kings

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sheikh Jamal

2/11/2023

Premier League · Round 9Bashundhara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Bashundhara Kings57%

×Draw22%

Sheikh Jamal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bashundhara KingsExpected goals in this matchSheikh Jamal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.13

Bashundhara Kings

2.00

Sheikh Jamal

1.13

Bashundhara Kings creates 77% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 56 away

2.62

creates per match

1.45

0.81

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bashundhara Kings

2.62

Sheikh Jamal

1.45

allows per match

Bashundhara Kings

0.81

Sheikh Jamal

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bashundhara Kings+0.00on par

Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bashundhara Kings ↓

Sheikh Jamal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bashundhara Kings or draw

79%

Bashundhara Kings or Sheikh Jamal

78%

Draw or Sheikh Jamal

43%

Winning margin

Bashundhara Kings wins by 2+

34%

Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bashundhara Kings 1+ goals

86%

Bashundhara Kings 2+ goals

59%

Bashundhara Kings 3+ goals

32%

Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals

68%

Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals

31%

Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bashundhara Kings (draw refunded)

73%

Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bashundhara Kings at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.81 · 74 matches

Sheikh Jamal away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bashundhara Kings attack 2.62 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.45 + Bashundhara Kings defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bashundhara Kings scores more

57%

level

22%

Sheikh Jamal scores more

21%

Bashundhara Kings at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bashundhara Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff