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Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Pobeda — Second League 2019

Bashkimi Kumanovo
Bashkimi Kumanovo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pobeda
Pobeda
8/19/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 2Milano Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo64%
×Draw21%
Pobeda15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.97
Pobeda
0.84

Bashkimi Kumanovo creates 135% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 67 away

creates per match

Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.73
Pobeda
0.69

allows per match

Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.00
Pobeda
2.21

finishing

Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par
Pobeda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bashkimi Kumanovo ↓

Pobeda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bashkimi Kumanovo or draw
85%
Bashkimi Kumanovo or Pobeda
79%
Draw or Pobeda
36%

Winning margin

Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+
39%
Pobeda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals
86%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals
58%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals
31%
Pobeda 1+ goals
57%
Pobeda 2+ goals
21%
Pobeda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)
81%
Pobeda (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bashkimi Kumanovo at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Pobeda away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.21 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 1.73 + Pobeda defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.97

Pobeda attack 0.69 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more
64%
level
21%
Pobeda scores more
15%

Bashkimi Kumanovo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bashkimi Kumanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Bashkimi Kumanovo 2–1 Pobeda

Bashkimi Kumanovo beat Pobeda 2-1 in Second League on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Milano Arena in Kumanovo.