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Basford United vs Lincoln United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Basford United
Basford United
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lincoln United
Lincoln United
C. Gill 90'
N. Peters 87'
E. Stewart 85', 53'
R. Molyneaux 80' (pen)
L. Moran 74', 38'
7/7/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Basford United62%
×Draw18%
Lincoln United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basford United
2.73
Lincoln United
1.53

Basford United creates 78% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Basford United
2.80
Lincoln United
1.67

allows per match

Basford United
1.40
Lincoln United
2.67

finishing

Basford United+0.00on par
Lincoln United+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basford United ↓

Lincoln United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Basford United or draw
80%
Basford United or Lincoln United
82%
Draw or Lincoln United
38%

Winning margin

Basford United wins by 2+
42%
Lincoln United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Basford United 1+ goals
93%
Basford United 2+ goals
75%
Basford United 3+ goals
50%
Lincoln United 1+ goals
78%
Lincoln United 2+ goals
45%
Lincoln United 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Basford United (draw refunded)
75%
Lincoln United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basford United at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Lincoln United away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basford United attack 2.80 + Lincoln United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.73

Lincoln United attack 1.67 + Basford United defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Basford United scores more
62%
level
18%
Lincoln United scores more
20%

Basford United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Basford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
L. Moran
53'
E. Stewart
74'
L. Moran
80'
R. MolyneauxPenalty
85'
E. Stewart
87'
N. Peters
90'
C. Gill
Basford
Lincoln
L. Potter
Manager: L. Potter
S. Wilkinson
Manager: S. Wilkinson

Basford United 4 – 3 Lincoln United

Basford United beat Lincoln United 4-3 in Friendlies Clubs on July 7, 2026.

Goals: L. Moran (38', 74'), E. Stewart (53', 85'), R. Molyneaux (80' pen), N. Peters (87'), C. Gill (90').