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Basel W vs Young Boys W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

Basel W
Basel W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Young Boys W
Young Boys W
3/30/2024AXA Women’s Super LeagueAXA Women’s Super League · Round 17Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Basel W48%
×Draw22%
Young Boys W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basel W
1.98
Young Boys W
1.52

Basel W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 57 away

creates per match

Basel W
2.25
Young Boys W
1.86

allows per match

Basel W
1.19
Young Boys W
1.72

finishing

Basel W+0.00on par
Young Boys W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel W ↓

Young Boys W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Basel W or draw
70%
Basel W or Young Boys W
78%
Draw or Young Boys W
52%

Winning margin

Basel W wins by 2+
27%
Young Boys W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Basel W 1+ goals
86%
Basel W 2+ goals
59%
Basel W 3+ goals
31%
Young Boys W 1+ goals
78%
Young Boys W 2+ goals
45%
Young Boys W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Basel W (draw refunded)
62%
Young Boys W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

Young Boys W away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel W attack 2.25 + Young Boys W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.98

Young Boys W attack 1.86 + Basel W defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Basel W scores more
48%
level
22%
Young Boys W scores more
30%

Basel W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Basel W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Basel W vs Young Boys W

Basel W beat Young Boys W 1-0 in AXA Women’s Super League on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob in Basel.