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Basel U19 vs Hamilton Academical U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Basel U19
Basel U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hamilton Academical U19
Hamilton Academical U19
10/3/2018UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 1st RoundLeichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob (Basel)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Basel U1963%
×Draw21%
Hamilton Academical U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basel U19
2.06
Hamilton Academical U19
0.94

Basel U19 creates 119% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Basel U19
1.80
Hamilton Academical U19
0.67

allows per match

Basel U19
1.20
Hamilton Academical U19
2.33

finishing

Basel U19+0.00on par
Hamilton Academical U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel U19 ↓

Hamilton Academical U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Basel U19 or draw
84%
Basel U19 or Hamilton Academical U19
79%
Draw or Hamilton Academical U19
37%

Winning margin

Basel U19 wins by 2+
39%
Hamilton Academical U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Basel U19 1+ goals
87%
Basel U19 2+ goals
61%
Basel U19 3+ goals
34%
Hamilton Academical U19 1+ goals
61%
Hamilton Academical U19 2+ goals
24%
Hamilton Academical U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Basel U19 (draw refunded)
79%
Hamilton Academical U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Hamilton Academical U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel U19 attack 1.80 + Hamilton Academical U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hamilton Academical U19 attack 0.67 + Basel U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Basel U19 scores more
63%
level
21%
Hamilton Academical U19 scores more
16%

Basel U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Basel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Basel U19 2 – 2 Hamilton Academical U19

Basel U19 and Hamilton Academical U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA Youth League on October 3, 2018.

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob (Basel).