Basel U19 0–2 Bayern München U19: Result & Stats

Basel U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bayern München U19

L. Zvonarek 90+4', 31'

2/7/2024

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsLeichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Basel U1944%

×Draw23%

Bayern München U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Basel U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.52

Basel U19

1.79

Bayern München U19

1.52

Basel U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

1.80

creates per match

1.84

1.20

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Basel U19

1.80

Bayern München U19

1.84

allows per match

Basel U19

1.20

Bayern München U19

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basel U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Basel U19 or draw

67%

Basel U19 or Bayern München U19

77%

Draw or Bayern München U19

56%

Winning margin

Basel U19 wins by 2+

24%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Basel U19 1+ goals

83%

Basel U19 2+ goals

53%

Basel U19 3+ goals

26%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

78%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

45%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Basel U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel U19 attack 1.80 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Bayern München U19 attack 1.84 + Basel U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Basel U19 scores more

44%

level

23%

Bayern München U19 scores more

33%

Basel U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Basel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

A. Aznou

31'

L. Zvonarek↳ Javier Fernández

37'

J. Fernandez

46'

Y. Ryter← Cobel Sow

46'

E. Senaya← L. Frokaj

46'

D. Xhemalija← E. Jashari

51'

B. Wimmer

59'

M. Scott← E. Demircan

60'

S. Bashaj← K. Tröndle

66'

D. Xhemalija

68'

L. Becker← J. Asp Jensen

69'

L. Richter← Adam Aznou

82'

A. Kayombo← R. Beney

86'

L. Puljić← R. Ramsak

87'

M. Mergner← P. Scholl

90+2'

A. Kayombo

90+3'

M. Schmitt

90+4'

L. Zvonarek↳ M. Scott

Basel

Bayern

1

Schmitt

3

▼

Aznou

4

▼

Scholl

5

Wimmer

10

⚽2

Zvonarek

8

▼

Jensen

7

Ličina

6

A

Fernández

2

Scholze

11

▼

Demircan

9

▼

1

5

2

4

3

▼

Tröndle

10

Onyegbule

8

▼

Frokaj

6

▼

Jashari

9

Akalé

11

▼

Beney

7

▼

Sow

Manager: M. Cantaluppi

46'▲Y. Ryter←▼Cobel Sow

46'▲E. Senaya←▼L. Frokaj

46'▲D. Xhemalija←▼E. Jashari

60'▲S. Bashaj←▼K. Tröndle

82'▲A. Kayombo←▼R. Beney

Basel U19 substitutes

20Ryter17Senaya13Xhemalija14Bashaj19Kayombo18Emch15Chirao

Manager: R. Marić

59'▲M. Scott←▼E. Demircan

68'▲L. Becker←▼J. Asp Jensen

69'▲L. Richter←▼Adam Aznou

86'▲L. Puljić←▼R. Ramsak

87'▲M. Mergner←▼P. Scholl

Bayern München U19 substitutes

17Scott16Becker14Richter12Puljić15Mergner13Dalpiaz18Klanac