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Basel II vs Rapperswil — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Basel II
Basel II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Rapperswil
Rapperswil
2/9/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 18Sportanlage Nachwuchs-Campus 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Basel II36%
×Draw22%
Rapperswil41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basel II
1.69
Rapperswil
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 87 away

creates per match

Basel II
1.90
Rapperswil
1.87

allows per match

Basel II
1.74
Rapperswil
1.48

finishing

Basel II+0.00on par
Rapperswil+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel II ↓

Rapperswil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Basel II or draw
59%
Basel II or Rapperswil
78%
Draw or Rapperswil
64%

Winning margin

Basel II wins by 2+
18%
Rapperswil wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Basel II 1+ goals
82%
Basel II 2+ goals
50%
Basel II 3+ goals
24%
Rapperswil 1+ goals
84%
Rapperswil 2+ goals
54%
Rapperswil 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Basel II (draw refunded)
47%
Rapperswil (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

Rapperswil away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel II attack 1.90 + Rapperswil defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rapperswil attack 1.87 + Basel II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Basel II scores more
36%
level
22%
Rapperswil scores more
41%

Rapperswil at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rapperswil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Basel II vs Rapperswil

Rapperswil beat Basel II 3-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Nachwuchs-Campus 7 in Münchenstein.