Basel II 1–1 Étoile Carouge: Result & Stats

Basel II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Étoile Carouge

5/7/2023

1. Liga Promotion · Round 31Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Basel II38%

×Draw23%

Étoile Carouge39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Basel IIExpected goals in this matchÉtoile Carouge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.69

Basel II

1.65

Étoile Carouge

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 70 away

1.90

creates per match

1.63

1.74

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Basel II

1.90

Étoile Carouge

1.63

allows per match

Basel II

1.74

Étoile Carouge

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basel II+0.00on par

Étoile Carouge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel II ↓

Étoile Carouge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Basel II or draw

61%

Basel II or Étoile Carouge

77%

Draw or Étoile Carouge

62%

Winning margin

Basel II wins by 2+

19%

Étoile Carouge wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Basel II 1+ goals

81%

Basel II 2+ goals

49%

Basel II 3+ goals

23%

Étoile Carouge 1+ goals

82%

Étoile Carouge 2+ goals

50%

Étoile Carouge 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Basel II (draw refunded)

49%

Étoile Carouge (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

Étoile Carouge away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel II attack 1.90 + Étoile Carouge defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Étoile Carouge attack 1.63 + Basel II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Basel II scores more

38%

level

23%

Étoile Carouge scores more

39%

Étoile Carouge at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Étoile Carouge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff