Basel II 1–3 Biel-Bienne: Result & Stats

Basel II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Biel-Bienne

9/20/2025

1. Liga Promotion · Round 8Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Basel II40%

×Draw23%

Biel-Bienne37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Basel IIExpected goals in this matchBiel-Bienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.69

Basel II

1.76

Biel-Bienne

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 86 away

1.90

creates per match

1.64

1.74

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Basel II

1.90

Biel-Bienne

1.64

allows per match

Basel II

1.74

Biel-Bienne

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basel II+0.00on par

Biel-Bienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel II ↓

Biel-Bienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Basel II or draw

63%

Basel II or Biel-Bienne

77%

Draw or Biel-Bienne

60%

Winning margin

Basel II wins by 2+

21%

Biel-Bienne wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Basel II 1+ goals

83%

Basel II 2+ goals

52%

Basel II 3+ goals

26%

Biel-Bienne 1+ goals

82%

Biel-Bienne 2+ goals

50%

Biel-Bienne 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Basel II (draw refunded)

52%

Biel-Bienne (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

Biel-Bienne away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.63 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel II attack 1.90 + Biel-Bienne defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.76

Biel-Bienne attack 1.64 + Basel II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Basel II scores more

40%

level

23%

Biel-Bienne scores more

37%

Basel II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Basel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff