Basconia 4–3 Eibar III: Result & Stats

Basconia

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Eibar III

1/19/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Estadio Artunduaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Basconia56%

×Draw22%

Eibar III21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BasconiaExpected goals in this matchEibar III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.06

Basconia

1.88

Eibar III

1.06

Basconia creates 77% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 34 away

1.97

creates per match

1.12

0.99

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Basconia

1.97

Eibar III

1.12

allows per match

Basconia

0.99

Eibar III

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basconia+0.00on par

Eibar III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basconia ↓

Eibar III →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Basconia or draw

79%

Basconia or Eibar III

78%

Draw or Eibar III

44%

Winning margin

Basconia wins by 2+

33%

Eibar III wins by 2+

Team goals

Basconia 1+ goals

85%

Basconia 2+ goals

56%

Basconia 3+ goals

29%

Eibar III 1+ goals

65%

Eibar III 2+ goals

29%

Eibar III 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Basconia (draw refunded)

73%

Eibar III (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Basconia at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.99 · 95 matches

Eibar III away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Basconia attack 1.97 + Eibar III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.88

Eibar III attack 1.12 + Basconia defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Basconia scores more

56%

level

22%

Eibar III scores more

21%

Basconia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Basconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff