Basconia 1–1 Durango: Result & Stats

Basconia

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Durango

3/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Estadio Artunduaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Basconia53%

×Draw25%

Durango23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BasconiaExpected goals in this matchDurango

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.97

Basconia

1.62

Durango

0.97

Basconia creates 67% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 114 away

1.97

creates per match

0.96

0.99

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Basconia

1.97

Durango

0.96

allows per match

Basconia

0.99

Durango

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basconia+0.00on par

Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basconia ↓

Durango →

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Basconia or draw

77%

Basconia or Durango

75%

Draw or Durango

47%

Winning margin

Basconia wins by 2+

28%

Durango wins by 2+

Team goals

Basconia 1+ goals

80%

Basconia 2+ goals

48%

Basconia 3+ goals

22%

Durango 1+ goals

62%

Durango 2+ goals

25%

Durango 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Basconia (draw refunded)

70%

Durango (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Basconia at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.99 · 95 matches

Durango away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Basconia attack 1.97 + Durango defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.62

Durango attack 0.96 + Basconia defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Basconia scores more

53%

level

25%

Durango scores more

23%

Basconia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Basconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff