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Basconia vs Balmaseda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Basconia
Basconia
CANC
00:00
Balmaseda
Balmaseda
3/30/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Estadio Pedro López Cortázar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Basconia52%
×Draw26%
Balmaseda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basconia
1.55
Balmaseda
0.93

Basconia creates 67% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 30 away

creates per match

Basconia
1.97
Balmaseda
0.87

allows per match

Basconia
0.99
Balmaseda
1.13

finishing

Basconia+0.00on par
Balmaseda+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basconia ↓

Balmaseda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Basconia or draw
77%
Basconia or Balmaseda
74%
Draw or Balmaseda
48%

Winning margin

Basconia wins by 2+
27%
Balmaseda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Basconia 1+ goals
79%
Basconia 2+ goals
46%
Basconia 3+ goals
20%
Balmaseda 1+ goals
61%
Balmaseda 2+ goals
24%
Balmaseda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Basconia (draw refunded)
70%
Balmaseda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basconia at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.99 · 95 matches

Balmaseda away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basconia attack 1.97 + Balmaseda defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.55

Balmaseda attack 0.87 + Basconia defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Basconia scores more
52%
level
26%
Balmaseda scores more
23%

Basconia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Basconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Basconia vs Balmaseda — Match Preview

Basconia face Balmaseda on March 30, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Basconia host Balmaseda at Estadio Pedro López Cortázar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.