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Basconia vs Ariznabarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Basconia
Basconia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ariznabarra
Ariznabarra
12/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Estadio Pedro López Cortázar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Basconia68%
×Draw19%
Ariznabarra12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basconia
2.10
Ariznabarra
0.76

Basconia creates 176% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 29 away

creates per match

Basconia
1.97
Ariznabarra
0.52

allows per match

Basconia
0.99
Ariznabarra
2.24

finishing

Basconia+0.00on par
Ariznabarra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basconia ↓

Ariznabarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Basconia or draw
88%
Basconia or Ariznabarra
81%
Draw or Ariznabarra
32%

Winning margin

Basconia wins by 2+
44%
Ariznabarra wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Basconia 1+ goals
88%
Basconia 2+ goals
62%
Basconia 3+ goals
35%
Ariznabarra 1+ goals
53%
Ariznabarra 2+ goals
18%
Ariznabarra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Basconia (draw refunded)
85%
Ariznabarra (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basconia at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.99 · 95 matches

Ariznabarra away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basconia attack 1.97 + Ariznabarra defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.10

Ariznabarra attack 0.52 + Basconia defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Basconia scores more
68%
level
19%
Ariznabarra scores more
12%

Basconia at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Basconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Basconia 2–0 Ariznabarra

Basconia beat Ariznabarra 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro López Cortázar in Basauri.