Başakşehir 1–1 Petrocub: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Petrocub

K. Piątek 42' (pen)

I. Borș 90+6'

11/27/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Başakşehir64%

×Draw20%

Petrocub15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this matchPetrocub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.88

Başakşehir

2.04

Petrocub

0.88

Başakşehir creates 132% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

2.18

creates per match

0.82

0.94

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.18

Petrocub

0.82

allows per match

Başakşehir

0.94

Petrocub

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Petrocub+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Petrocub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

85%

Başakşehir or Petrocub

80%

Draw or Petrocub

36%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

40%

Petrocub wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

87%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

60%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

33%

Petrocub 1+ goals

59%

Petrocub 2+ goals

22%

Petrocub 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

81%

Petrocub (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Petrocub away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.18 + Petrocub defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.04

Petrocub attack 0.82 + Başakşehir defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Başakşehir scores more

64%

level

20%

Petrocub scores more

15%

Başakşehir at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Șmalenea

Petrocub · G

7.7

Match Events

5'

Teodor LunguGoal cancelled

42'

K. PiątekPenalty

45+3'

Teodor Lungu

46'

D. Pușcaș← M. Lupan

51'

Silviu ȘmaleneaRed card cancelled

63'

Ousseynou Ba

68'

Dimitrios Pelkas

71'

Miguel Crespo← D. Pelkas

72'

I. Borș← B. Diallo

72'

V. Jardan← V. Ambros

79'

S. Gürler← João Figueiredo

79'

D. Türüç← P. Keny

82'

M. Căruntu← D. Demian

83'

Dan Pușcaș

85'

Davidson← S. Gürler

86'

B. Özdemir← O. Ergün

87'

V. Nihaev← S. Plătică

90+1'

Jerome Opoku

90+6'

I. Borș↳ D. Pușcaș

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaşakşehirPetrocub

Overview

63%Possession37%

14Total Shots5

2.38Expected Goals (xG)0.43

5Corners1

15Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots5

5On Target2

5Off Target0

4Blocked3

11Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

551Total Passes324

470Accurate Passes254

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.78Goals Prevented0.78

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

UEFA Europa Conference League: Başakşehir 1–1 Petrocub

Başakşehir and Petrocub drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 27, 2024.

Goals: K. Piątek (42' pen), I. Borș (90+6').

Başakşehir controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Başakşehir vs Petrocub — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa Conference League: Başakşehir 1–1 Petrocub