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Başakşehir vs KVC Westerlo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Başakşehir
Başakşehir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
M. Chouiar 40'
B. Özcan 38'
N. Dorgeles 9'
12/10/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 2Mardan 2. Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Başakşehir53%
×Draw25%
KVC Westerlo22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Başakşehir
1.56
KVC Westerlo
0.90

Başakşehir creates 73% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Başakşehir
1.33
KVC Westerlo
0.80

allows per match

Başakşehir
1.00
KVC Westerlo
1.80

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par
KVC Westerlo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

KVC Westerlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw
78%
Başakşehir or KVC Westerlo
75%
Draw or KVC Westerlo
47%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+
28%
KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals
79%
Başakşehir 2+ goals
46%
Başakşehir 3+ goals
21%
KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
59%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
23%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)
71%
KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 1.33 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

KVC Westerlo attack 0.80 + Başakşehir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Başakşehir scores more
53%
level
25%
KVC Westerlo scores more
22%

Başakşehir at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
N. Dorgeles
38'
B. Özcan
40'
M. Chouiar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Başakşehir vs KVC Westerlo

Başakşehir beat KVC Westerlo 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on December 10, 2022.

Goals: N. Dorgeles (9'), B. Özcan (38'), M. Chouiar (40').

The match was played at Mardan 2. Stadı in Antalya.