Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FK: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Gaziantep FK

I. Brnić 45+4'

K. Piątek 42' (pen)

D. Okereke 9'

4/20/2025

League #203 · Round 32Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Başakşehir63%

×Draw19%

Gaziantep FK19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this matchGaziantep FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.25

Başakşehir

2.42

Gaziantep FK

1.25

Başakşehir creates 94% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.25

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.25

Gaziantep FK

1.00

allows per match

Başakşehir

1.50

Gaziantep FK

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Gaziantep FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

81%

Başakşehir or Gaziantep FK

81%

Draw or Gaziantep FK

37%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

41%

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

91%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

69%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

43%

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

71%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

36%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

77%

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.25 + Gaziantep FK defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.42

Gaziantep FK attack 1.00 + Başakşehir defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Başakşehir scores more

63%

level

19%

Gaziantep FK scores more

19%

Başakşehir at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

D. Okereke

Gaziantep FK · F

7.9

Match Events

9'

D. Okereke↳ H. Dervişoğlu

19'

Alexandru Maxim

26'

Yusuf SarıGoal cancelled

39'

Miguel CrespoPenalty confirmed

40'

Bruno Viana

42'

K. PiątekPenalty

45'

Christopher Operi

45+4'

I. Brnić↳ Ö. Şahiner

46'

Q. Daubin← A. Maxim

46'

C. Lungoyi← O. Özçiçek

54'

Badou Ndiaye

54'

David Okereke

64'

E. Taşdemir← S. MBakata

65'

E. Boateng← H. Dervişoğlu

68'

João Figueiredo← I. Brnić

78'

D. Türüç← Y. Sarı

88'

Krzysztof Piątek

89'

K. Kodro← Bruno Viana

90+7'

90+6'

90+7'

90+2'

90+3'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaşakşehirGaziantep

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots16

1.76Expected Goals (xG)1.65

5Corners1

13Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots16

4On Target5

1Off Target10

4Blocked1

6Inside Box12

3Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

387Total Passes322

318Accurate Passes263

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-0.15Goals Prevented-0.15

Discipline

13Fouls21

1Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards1

1Offsides2