Başakşehir 4–1 Çorum FK: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Çorum FK

2/4/2025

Türkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 2Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Başakşehir65%

×Draw17%

Çorum FK17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this matchÇorum FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.33

Başakşehir

2.67

Çorum FK

1.33

Başakşehir creates 101% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

2.00

0.67

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.33

Çorum FK

2.00

allows per match

Başakşehir

0.67

Çorum FK

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Çorum FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

83%

Başakşehir or Çorum FK

83%

Draw or Çorum FK

35%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

44%

Çorum FK wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

93%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

74%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

49%

Çorum FK 1+ goals

74%

Çorum FK 2+ goals

38%

Çorum FK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

79%

Çorum FK (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.33 + Çorum FK defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Çorum FK attack 2.00 + Başakşehir defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Başakşehir scores more

65%

level

17%

Çorum FK scores more

17%

Başakşehir at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff