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Başakşehir vs Boluspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Başakşehir
Başakşehir
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Boluspor
Boluspor
1/17/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundBaşakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Başakşehir65%
×Draw20%
Boluspor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Başakşehir
2.03
Boluspor
0.83

Başakşehir creates 145% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Başakşehir
2.33
Boluspor
1.00

allows per match

Başakşehir
0.67
Boluspor
1.73

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par
Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Boluspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw
86%
Başakşehir or Boluspor
80%
Draw or Boluspor
35%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+
40%
Boluspor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals
87%
Başakşehir 2+ goals
60%
Başakşehir 3+ goals
33%
Boluspor 1+ goals
56%
Boluspor 2+ goals
20%
Boluspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)
82%
Boluspor (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.33 + Boluspor defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.03

Boluspor attack 1.00 + Başakşehir defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Başakşehir scores more
65%
level
20%
Boluspor scores more
14%

Başakşehir at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Başakşehir 1–0 Boluspor

Başakşehir beat Boluspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on January 17, 2024.

The match was played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in İstanbul.