Başakşehir 3–1 1. FC Heidenheim: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

1. FC Heidenheim

K. Piątek 68'

Miguel Crespo 18'

D. Türüç 6'

M. Honsak 61'

12/12/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Başakşehir45%

×Draw25%

1. FC Heidenheim31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this match1. FC Heidenheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.27

Başakşehir

1.59

1. FC Heidenheim

1.27

Başakşehir creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 5 away

2.18

creates per match

1.60

0.94

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.18

1. FC Heidenheim

1.60

allows per match

Başakşehir

0.94

1. FC Heidenheim

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

1. FC Heidenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

1. FC Heidenheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

69%

Başakşehir or 1. FC Heidenheim

75%

Draw or 1. FC Heidenheim

55%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

23%

1. FC Heidenheim wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

80%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

47%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

21%

1. FC Heidenheim 1+ goals

72%

1. FC Heidenheim 2+ goals

36%

1. FC Heidenheim 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

59%

1. FC Heidenheim (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

1. FC Heidenheim away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.18 + 1. FC Heidenheim defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.60 + Başakşehir defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Başakşehir scores more

45%

level

25%

1. FC Heidenheim scores more

31%

Başakşehir at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Miguel Crespo

Başakşehir · M

8.9

Match Events

6'

D. Türüç↳ K. Piątek

18'

Miguel Crespo

24'

B. Özdemir← O. Ergün

30'

J. Schöppner← P. Wanner

30'

M. Honsak← M. Breunig

45+1'

Lennard Maloney

61'

J. Föhrenbach← L. Maloney

61'

C. Negele← Léo Scienza

61'

M. Honsak

68'

K. Piątek↳ Miguel Crespo

72'

73'

73'

74'

86'

86'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Başakşehir1.

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots16

1.51Expected Goals (xG)2.01

9Corners6

13Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots16

6On Target4

3Off Target3

2Blocked9

9Inside Box9

2Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

335Total Passes474

249Accurate Passes382

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.57Goals Prevented-0.57

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3