Basake Holy Stars 2–1 Berekum Chelsea

Basake Holy Stars

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Berekum Chelsea

4/6/2025

Premier League · Round 26Ampian AAK II Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Basake Holy Stars56%

×Draw27%

Berekum Chelsea17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Basake Holy StarsExpected goals in this matchBerekum Chelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.64

Basake Holy Stars

1.44

Berekum Chelsea

0.64

Basake Holy Stars creates 125% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 108 away

1.30

creates per match

0.73

0.55

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Basake Holy Stars

1.30

Berekum Chelsea

0.73

allows per match

Basake Holy Stars

0.55

Berekum Chelsea

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basake Holy Stars ↓

Berekum Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Basake Holy Stars or draw

83%

Basake Holy Stars or Berekum Chelsea

73%

Draw or Berekum Chelsea

44%

Winning margin

Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+

29%

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals

76%

Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals

42%

Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals

18%

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

47%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

14%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)

77%

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basake Holy Stars at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.55 · 33 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basake Holy Stars attack 1.30 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.73 + Basake Holy Stars defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Basake Holy Stars scores more

56%

level

27%

Berekum Chelsea scores more

17%

Basake Holy Stars at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Basake Holy Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Basake Holy Stars 2–1 Berekum Chelsea

Basake Holy Stars beat Berekum Chelsea 2-1 in Premier League on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Ampian AAK II Sports Arena in Azulewanu.

Basake Holy Stars vs Berekum Chelsea — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Premier League: Basake Holy Stars 2–1 Berekum Chelsea