Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bartınspor vs Sarıyer — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bartınspor
Bartınspor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sarıyer
Sarıyer
9/26/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBartın Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bartınspor53%
×Draw22%
Sarıyer25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bartınspor
1.95
Sarıyer
1.28

Bartınspor creates 52% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bartınspor
1.33
Sarıyer
0.57

allows per match

Bartınspor
2.00
Sarıyer
2.57

finishing

Bartınspor+0.00on par
Sarıyer+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bartınspor ↓

Sarıyer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bartınspor or draw
75%
Bartınspor or Sarıyer
78%
Draw or Sarıyer
47%

Winning margin

Bartınspor wins by 2+
30%
Sarıyer wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bartınspor 1+ goals
86%
Bartınspor 2+ goals
58%
Bartınspor 3+ goals
31%
Sarıyer 1+ goals
72%
Sarıyer 2+ goals
37%
Sarıyer 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bartınspor (draw refunded)
68%
Sarıyer (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bartınspor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Sarıyer away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bartınspor attack 1.33 + Sarıyer defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.95

Sarıyer attack 0.57 + Bartınspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bartınspor scores more
53%
level
22%
Sarıyer scores more
25%

Bartınspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bartınspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Bartınspor 1–2 Sarıyer

Sarıyer beat Bartınspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 26, 2018.

The match was played at Bartın Atatürk Stadyumu in Bartın.