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Rangers vs Eastern — FA Cup 2020

Rangers
Rangers
FT
2 – 8
HT: 1 – 4
Eastern
Eastern
3/7/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundTseung Kwan O Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rangers11%
×Draw14%
Eastern75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.25
Eastern
3.25

Eastern creates 160% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Rangers
1.71
Eastern
3.20

allows per match

Rangers
3.29
Eastern
0.80

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Eastern+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Eastern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
25%
Rangers or Eastern
86%
Draw or Eastern
89%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
4%
Eastern wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
71%
Rangers 2+ goals
36%
Rangers 3+ goals
13%
Eastern 1+ goals
96%
Eastern 2+ goals
83%
Eastern 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
13%
Eastern (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 1.71, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

Eastern away — creates 3.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 1.71 + Eastern defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Eastern attack 3.20 + Rangers defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Rangers scores more
11%
level
14%
Eastern scores more
75%

Eastern at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Eastern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rangers vs Eastern

Eastern beat Rangers 8-2 in FA Cup on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground in Hong Kong.