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Barry Town vs Cardiff MET — League #110 2026

Barry Town
Barry Town
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
12/26/2025League #110League #110

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barry Town45%
×Draw29%
Cardiff MET27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barry Town
1.27
Cardiff MET
0.91

Barry Town creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 17 away

creates per match

Barry Town
1.24
Cardiff MET
0.65

allows per match

Barry Town
1.16
Cardiff MET
1.29

finishing

Barry Town+0.00on par
Cardiff MET+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barry Town ↓

Cardiff MET →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Barry Town or draw
73%
Barry Town or Cardiff MET
71%
Draw or Cardiff MET
55%

Winning margin

Barry Town wins by 2+
20%
Cardiff MET wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barry Town 1+ goals
72%
Barry Town 2+ goals
36%
Barry Town 3+ goals
14%
Cardiff MET 1+ goals
60%
Cardiff MET 2+ goals
23%
Cardiff MET 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Barry Town (draw refunded)
63%
Cardiff MET (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barry Town at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Cardiff MET away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barry Town attack 1.24 + Cardiff MET defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cardiff MET attack 0.65 + Barry Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Barry Town scores more
45%
level
29%
Cardiff MET scores more
27%

Barry Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barry Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barry Town vs Cardiff MET

Barry Town beat Cardiff MET 1-0 in League #110 on December 26, 2025.