Barrow 2–2 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Walsall

L. James 50'

D. Angus 25' (pen)

C. Lavery 58' (pen), 45+1'

10/24/2020

League Two · Round 8Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow24%

×Draw25%

Walsall51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.58

Barrow

1.00

Walsall

1.58

Walsall creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

0.81

creates per match

1.78

1.38

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Walsall

1.20

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

49%

Barrow or Walsall

75%

Draw or Walsall

76%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

9%

Walsall wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

63%

Barrow 2+ goals

26%

Barrow 3+ goals

8%

Walsall 1+ goals

79%

Walsall 2+ goals

47%

Walsall 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

32%

Walsall (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Walsall attack 1.78 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Barrow scores more

24%

level

25%

Walsall scores more

51%

Walsall at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Lavery

Walsall · F

8.3

Match Events

20'

Mike David Jones

25'

D. AngusPenalty

26'

Dior Angus

40'

W. McDonald← J. Clarke

45+1'

C. Lavery↳ D. Scarr

50'

L. James

57'

Josh Kay

58'

C. LaveryPenalty

59'

D. Guthrie← A. Bates

63'

Caolan Lavery

77'

C. Brown← J. Kay

77'

J. Scrimshaw← E. Adebayo

84'

Zak Jules

85'

J. Reid← D. Angus

90+2'

C. Taylor← H. Biggins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowWalsall

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots9

5Corners7

13Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots9

5On Target3

5Off Target3

0Blocked3

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

395Total Passes356

312Accurate Passes247

79%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5