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Barrow vs Southend — League #43 2026

Barrow
Barrow
Preview
15:00
Southend
Southend
2/13/2027League #43League #43 · Round 32Holker Street
50%
Southend
model favours
25%24%50%

Barrow score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Barrow25%
×Draw24%
Southend50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
1.13
Southend
1.69

Southend creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

Barrow
1.00
Southend
1.75

allows per match

Barrow
1.62
Southend
1.25

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par
Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Southend →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
50%
Barrow or Southend
76%
Draw or Southend
75%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
10%
Southend wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
68%
Barrow 2+ goals
31%
Barrow 3+ goals
11%
Southend 1+ goals
82%
Southend 2+ goals
50%
Southend 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
34%
Southend (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Southend away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.00 + Southend defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Southend attack 1.75 + Barrow defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Barrow scores more
25%
level
24%
Southend scores more
50%

Southend at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Southend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 50% of Barrow’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Barrow matches are rarely goalless — only 2.7% end 0-0
  • 20% of Barrow’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Barrow
DWWLL
Southend
LDLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Barrow host Southend

February 13, 2027: Barrow take on Southend in League #43. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Barrow host Southend at Holker Street.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.