Barrow 1–2 Rochdale: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rochdale

O. Banks 56'

J. Beesley 72', 28'

10/30/2021

League Two · Round 15The Dunes Hotel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Barrow42%

×Draw28%

Rochdale30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.04

Barrow

1.28

Rochdale

1.04

Barrow creates 23% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 56 away

1.20

creates per match

0.95

1.12

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Rochdale

0.95

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Rochdale

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

70%

Barrow or Rochdale

72%

Draw or Rochdale

58%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

19%

Rochdale wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

72%

Barrow 2+ goals

37%

Barrow 3+ goals

14%

Rochdale 1+ goals

65%

Rochdale 2+ goals

28%

Rochdale 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

58%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barrow scores more

42%

level

28%

Rochdale scores more

30%

Barrow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

O. Banks

Barrow · M

7.9

Match Events

28'

J. Beesley↳ E. O'Connell

53'

53'

56'

58'

64'

68'

L. James← G. Williams

72'

74'

74'

85'

86'

G. Broadbent← A. Odoh

90+3'

Matthew Platt

90+2'

S. Dooley← L. Kelly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowRochdale

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots12

5Corners5

17Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target5

6Off Target5

4Blocked2

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

427Total Passes365

333Accurate Passes259

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2