Barrow 2–1 Notts County: Result & Stats

Barrow

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Notts County

8/16/2025

League Two · Round 3Holker Street

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Barrow40%

×Draw26%

Notts County34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.25

Barrow

1.40

Notts County

1.25

Barrow creates 12% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 94 away

1.20

creates per match

1.38

1.12

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Notts County

1.38

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Notts County

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Notts County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

66%

Barrow or Notts County

74%

Draw or Notts County

60%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

19%

Notts County wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

75%

Barrow 2+ goals

41%

Barrow 3+ goals

17%

Notts County 1+ goals

71%

Notts County 2+ goals

36%

Notts County 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

55%

Notts County (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.60 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Notts County defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Notts County attack 1.38 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barrow scores more

40%

level

26%

Notts County scores more

34%

Barrow at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff