Barrow 1–1 Notts County: Result & Stats

Barrow

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Notts County

D. Campbell 79' (pen)

D. McGoldrick 14' (pen)

10/7/2023

League Two · Round 12SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow37%

×Draw28%

Notts County35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.15

Barrow

1.18

Notts County

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

0.81

creates per match

0.92

1.38

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Notts County

0.92

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Notts County

1.55

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Notts County+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Notts County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

65%

Barrow or Notts County

72%

Draw or Notts County

63%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

15%

Notts County wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

69%

Barrow 2+ goals

33%

Barrow 3+ goals

12%

Notts County 1+ goals

68%

Notts County 2+ goals

32%

Notts County 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

51%

Notts County (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Notts County away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.55 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Notts County defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.18

Notts County attack 0.92 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barrow scores more

37%

level

28%

Notts County scores more

35%

Barrow at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Campbell

Barrow · M

7.7

Match Events

13'

L. Stephenson← T. Warren

14'

D. McGoldrickPenalty

30'

Tobi Adebayo-Rowling

63'

Rory Feely

67'

A. Nemane← O. Adebayo-Rowling

67'

J. O'Brien← J. Bostock

67'

S. Austin← M. Langstaff

76'

B. Whitfield← S. Foley

76'

D. Telford← G. Garner

79'

D. CampbellPenalty

81'

87'

88'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowNotts

Overview

33%Possession67%

14Total Shots5

2Corners5

7Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots5

6On Target1

5Off Target3

3Blocked1

12Inside Box4

2Outside Box1

Passing

33%Possession67%

312Total Passes662

230Accurate Passes583

74%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4