Barrow 1–3 Northampton: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Northampton

J. Kay 45'

S. Hoskins 21', 5'

F. Horsfall 14'

5/7/2022

League Two · Round 46The Dunes Hotel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Barrow37%

×Draw28%

Northampton35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.18

Barrow

1.22

Northampton

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 88 away

1.20

creates per match

1.24

1.12

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Northampton

1.24

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Northampton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

65%

Barrow or Northampton

72%

Draw or Northampton

63%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

16%

Northampton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

70%

Barrow 2+ goals

34%

Barrow 3+ goals

12%

Northampton 1+ goals

69%

Northampton 2+ goals

33%

Northampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

51%

Northampton (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Northampton attack 1.24 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barrow scores more

37%

level

28%

Northampton scores more

35%

Barrow at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Hoskins

Northampton · F

8.2

Match Events

5'

S. Hoskins↳ L. Appéré

14'

F. Horsfall↳ M. Pinnock

21'

S. Hoskins↳ J. Eppiah

32'

A. Driscoll-Glennon← J. Stevens

45+1'

Josh Kay

45'

J. Kay↳ J. Rooney

49'

Sam Hoskins

62'

D. Rose← J. Eppiah

69'

G. Williams← R. Hutton

77'

80'

81'

81'

88'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowNorthampton

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots9

7Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots9

3On Target4

5Off Target2

5Blocked3

7Inside Box8

6Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

414Total Passes324

266Accurate Passes182

64%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2