Barrow 2–0 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Barrow

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mansfield Town

P. Brough 77', 74'

3/6/2021

League Two · Round 34Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Barrow36%

×Draw28%

Mansfield Town36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.19

Barrow

1.18

Mansfield Town

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 141 away

1.20

creates per match

1.25

1.12

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

64%

Barrow or Mansfield Town

72%

Draw or Mansfield Town

64%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

15%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

69%

Barrow 2+ goals

33%

Barrow 3+ goals

12%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

70%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

33%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

50%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Barrow scores more

36%

level

28%

Mansfield Town scores more

36%

Barrow at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

P. Brough

Barrow · M

8.3

Match Events

26'

Ollie Clarke

46'

Ryan Sweeney

53'

T. Beadling← C. Taylor

63'

Ryan Sweeney

63'

Ryan Sweeney

64'

J. Perch← H. Charsley

67'

73'

74'

77'

78'

T. Sinclair← J. Bowery

79'

K. Ward← S. Quinn

79'

J. Wright← K. Gordon

81'

Jamie Reid

84'

L. James← J. Kay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowMansfield

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots6

0Corners3

12Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots6

4On Target2

4Off Target3

4Blocked1

7Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

341Total Passes360

219Accurate Passes237

64%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls18

0Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0