Barrow 1–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Barrow

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Leyton Orient

J. Kay 16'

D. Johnson 50'

10/10/2020

League Two · Round 5Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Barrow37%

×Draw28%

Leyton Orient35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.15

Barrow

1.20

Leyton Orient

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 94 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

1.12

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

65%

Barrow or Leyton Orient

72%

Draw or Leyton Orient

63%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

16%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

70%

Barrow 2+ goals

34%

Barrow 3+ goals

12%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

68%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

32%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

52%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barrow scores more

37%

level

28%

Leyton Orient scores more

35%

Barrow at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

C. Taylor

Barrow · M

7.5

Match Events

7'

Sam Ling

9'

Daniel Happe

15'

J. Widdowson← J. Dayton

16'

J. Kay↳ C. Taylor

50'

61'

61'

61'

63'

67'

67'

J. McAnuff← L. Dennis

68'

76'

78'

82'

83'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowLeyton

Overview

66%Possession34%

22Total Shots5

12Corners3

17Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots5

6On Target3

9Off Target1

7Blocked1

13Inside Box3

9Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

466Total Passes249

377Accurate Passes153

81%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls11

4Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

4Offsides0