Barrow 1–2 Hartlepool: Result & Stats | League #43

Barrow

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hartlepool

L. James 19'

C. Magnay 50'

C. Newton 45+1'

3/21/2018

League #43 · Round 45Furness Building Society Stadium (Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Barrow37%

×Draw26%

Hartlepool38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.39

Barrow

1.36

Hartlepool

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.00

creates per match

1.15

1.62

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Barrow

1.00

Hartlepool

1.15

allows per match

Barrow

1.62

Hartlepool

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

62%

Barrow or Hartlepool

74%

Draw or Hartlepool

63%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

17%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

74%

Barrow 2+ goals

39%

Barrow 3+ goals

16%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

75%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

40%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

49%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.00 + Hartlepool defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hartlepool attack 1.15 + Barrow defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barrow scores more

37%

level

26%

Hartlepool scores more

38%

Hartlepool at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

L. James

45+1'

C. Newton

50'

C. Magnay

69'

G. Holt← N. Waterston

79'

D. Rodney← R. Oates

81'

D. Jones← D. Makoma

81'

J. White← L. Walters

86'

J. Hawkes← L. Hawkins

90+5'

J. Owen← S. Harrison

Barrow

Hartlepool

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Pennock

69'▲G. Holt←▼N. Waterston

81'▲D. Jones←▼D. Makoma

81'▲J. White←▼L. Walters

Barrow substitutes

HoltJonesWhiteBarthramDiagne

Manager: M. Bates

79'▲D. Rodney←▼R. Oates

86'▲J. Hawkes←▼L. Hawkins

90+5'▲J. Owen←▼S. Harrison

Hartlepool substitutes

RodneyHawkesOwenMunnsCatterick