Barrow 0–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

2/28/2026

League Two · Round 35Holker Street

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow34%

×Draw27%

Gillingham39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.29

Barrow

1.17

Gillingham

1.29

Gillingham creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

0.81

creates per match

1.21

1.38

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Gillingham

1.21

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Gillingham

1.53

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

61%

Barrow or Gillingham

73%

Draw or Gillingham

66%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

14%

Gillingham wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

69%

Barrow 2+ goals

33%

Barrow 3+ goals

11%

Gillingham 1+ goals

72%

Gillingham 2+ goals

37%

Gillingham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

46%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barrow scores more

34%

level

27%

Gillingham scores more

39%

Gillingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff