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Barrow vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gillingham
Gillingham
R. Gotts 90+4'
G. Morris 9' (OG)
C. Masterson 82'
4/1/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 39SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow34%
×Draw27%
Gillingham39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
1.17
Gillingham
1.29

Gillingham creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Barrow
0.81
Gillingham
1.21

allows per match

Barrow
1.38
Gillingham
1.53

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par
Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
61%
Barrow or Gillingham
73%
Draw or Gillingham
66%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
14%
Gillingham wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
69%
Barrow 2+ goals
33%
Barrow 3+ goals
11%
Gillingham 1+ goals
72%
Gillingham 2+ goals
37%
Gillingham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
46%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barrow scores more
34%
level
27%
Gillingham scores more
39%

Gillingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
C. MastersonGillinghamGillingham · D
7.2

Match Events

9'
G. MorrisOwn goal
15'
Harrison Neal
45+2'
Aiden O'Brien
46'
O. Hawkins← T. Abrahams
46'
D. Tutonda← C. Alexander
66'
Josh Kay
70'
R. Gotts← J. Kay
72'
G. Lapslie← T. Dieng
77'
W. Wright← R. McKenzie
82'
C. Masterson↳ A. MacDonald
86'
B. Whitfield← H. Neal
86'
J. Young← S. Foley
87'
Tom Nichols
90+5'
R. Feely← T. Warren
90'
E. Coleman← T. Nichols
90+4'
R. Gotts

Possession

45%Barrow

Shots

12Barrow

Pass accuracy

45%Barrow

Statistics

BarrowGillingham
Overview
45%Possession55%
12Total Shots6
3Corners1
16Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots6
7On Target1
2Off Target4
3Blocked1
8Inside Box4
4Outside Box2
Passing
45%Possession55%
279Total Passes352
160Accurate Passes249
57%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2

League Two: Barrow 2–1 Gillingham

Barrow beat Gillingham 2-1 in League Two on April 1, 2023.

Goals: G. Morris (9' o.g.), C. Masterson (82'), R. Gotts (90+4').

Gillingham controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 12.

The match was played at SO Legal Stadium in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.