Barrow 1–2 Gateshead: Result & Stats | League #43

Barrow

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Gateshead

T. Smith 25'

G. Olley 48'

S. Boden 45+1'

9/25/2018

League #43 · Round 17Furness Building Society Stadium (Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Barrow32%

×Draw26%

Gateshead42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchGateshead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.46

Barrow

1.25

Gateshead

1.46

Gateshead creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

1.30

1.62

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Barrow

1.00

Gateshead

1.30

allows per match

Barrow

1.62

Gateshead

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Gateshead+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Gateshead →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

58%

Barrow or Gateshead

74%

Draw or Gateshead

68%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

14%

Gateshead wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

71%

Barrow 2+ goals

36%

Barrow 3+ goals

13%

Gateshead 1+ goals

77%

Gateshead 2+ goals

43%

Gateshead 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

44%

Gateshead (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Gateshead away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.00 + Gateshead defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gateshead attack 1.30 + Barrow defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barrow scores more

32%

level

26%

Gateshead scores more

42%

Gateshead at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gateshead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

T. Smith

45+1'

S. Boden

46'

J. Barthram← C. Brown

48'

G. Olley

65'

J. Blyth← R. Holden

65'

J. Hindle← J. Kay

66'

J. Hunter← L. Molyneux

Barrow

Gateshead

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: I. Evatt

46'▲J. Barthram←▼C. Brown

65'▲J. Blyth←▼R. Holden

65'▲J. Hindle←▼J. Kay

Barrow substitutes

BarthramBlythHindleMolyneuxJennings

Manager: S. Watson

66'▲J. Hunter←▼L. Molyneux

Gateshead substitutes

HunterSalkeldForbesFodenWilliamson