Barrow 1–2 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Barrow

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Forest Green

2/13/2024

League Two · Round 33SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Barrow35%

×Draw27%

Forest Green38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.27

Barrow

1.21

Forest Green

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 113 away

1.20

creates per match

1.42

1.12

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Forest Green

1.42

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Forest Green

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

62%

Barrow or Forest Green

73%

Draw or Forest Green

65%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

15%

Forest Green wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

70%

Barrow 2+ goals

34%

Barrow 3+ goals

12%

Forest Green 1+ goals

72%

Forest Green 2+ goals

36%

Forest Green 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

48%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.22 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Forest Green attack 1.42 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barrow scores more

35%

level

27%

Forest Green scores more

38%

Forest Green at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff