Barrow 2–1 Exeter City: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Exeter City

S. Quigley 90+1'

P. Brough 45+2'

P. Sweeney 90+4'

4/13/2021

League Two · Round 22Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Barrow37%

×Draw27%

Exeter City36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.24

Barrow

1.26

Exeter City

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 97 away

1.20

creates per match

1.35

1.12

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Exeter City

1.35

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Exeter City

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

64%

Barrow or Exeter City

73%

Draw or Exeter City

63%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

16%

Exeter City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

72%

Barrow 2+ goals

36%

Barrow 3+ goals

13%

Exeter City 1+ goals

71%

Exeter City 2+ goals

35%

Exeter City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

51%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barrow scores more

37%

level

27%

Exeter City scores more

36%

Barrow at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Quigley

Barrow · F

7.6

Match Events

10'

Nigel Atangana

45+2'

P. Brough

56'

B. Seymour← R. Williams

57'

L. Page← M. Jay

61'

J. Caprice← T. Parkes

62'

Ngosi Ntlhe

69'

Patrick Brough

76'

C. Andrew← L. James

76'

T. Beadling← C. Taylor

77'

A. Fisher← N. Atangana

89'

Scott Quigley

90+1'

S. Quigley↳ C. Andrew

90+4'

P. Sweeney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowExeter

Overview

42%Possession58%

6Total Shots9

2Corners5

17Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots9

2On Target5

1Off Target4

3Blocked0

3Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

335Total Passes444

163Accurate Passes270

49%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1