Barrow 2–3 Colchester: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Colchester

O. Banks 76' (pen)

J. Stevens 25'

T. Eastman 80'

F. Sears 38'

A. Judge 35'

9/10/2021

League Two · Round 7The Dunes Hotel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow37%

×Draw26%

Colchester36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.29

Barrow

1.31

Colchester

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.81

creates per match

1.21

1.38

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Colchester

1.81

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

64%

Barrow or Colchester

74%

Draw or Colchester

63%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

17%

Colchester wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

73%

Barrow 2+ goals

38%

Barrow 3+ goals

14%

Colchester 1+ goals

72%

Colchester 2+ goals

37%

Colchester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

51%

Colchester (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Colchester attack 1.21 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barrow scores more

37%

level

26%

Colchester scores more

36%

Barrow at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

J. Stevens

Barrow · F

8.2

Match Events

25'

35'

38'

50'

64'

Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu

67'

68'

68'

72'

72'

D. Sea← J. Taylor

76'

N. Chilvers← L. Hannant

76'

O. BanksPenalty

79'

Cameron Coxe

80'

T. Eastman↳ C. Daniels

82'

J. Kay← J. Gordon

87'

J. Tchamadeu← F. Sears

88'

88'

89'

89'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowColchester

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots10

8Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots10

5On Target3

8Off Target4

6Blocked3

10Inside Box7

9Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

340Total Passes288

246Accurate Passes177

72%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards1

1Offsides0