Barrow 1–1 Colchester: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colchester

M. Jones 54'

N. Chilvers 34'

9/26/2020

League Two · Round 3Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow37%

×Draw26%

Colchester36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.29

Barrow

1.31

Colchester

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.81

creates per match

1.21

1.38

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Colchester

1.81

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

64%

Barrow or Colchester

74%

Draw or Colchester

63%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

17%

Colchester wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

73%

Barrow 2+ goals

38%

Barrow 3+ goals

14%

Colchester 1+ goals

72%

Colchester 2+ goals

37%

Colchester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

51%

Colchester (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Colchester attack 1.21 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barrow scores more

37%

level

26%

Colchester scores more

36%

Barrow at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Hardcastle

Barrow · F

7.9

Match Events

34'

54'

54'

57'

63'

65'

75'

P. Cowan-Hall← C. Harriott

78'

J. Kay← S. Wilson

81'

L. Gambin← K. Poku

90'

Paris Cowan Hall

90'

Tommy Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowColchester

Overview

49%Possession51%

17Total Shots12

7Corners5

14Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots12

4On Target4

6Off Target4

7Blocked4

9Inside Box3

8Outside Box9

Passing

49%Possession51%

365Total Passes372

247Accurate Passes252

68%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3