Barrow 0–2 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Barrow

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bristol Rovers

F. Cavegn 56'

T. Leigh 27'

3/10/2026

League Two · Round 25Holker Street

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow29%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.36

Barrow

1.04

Bristol Rovers

1.36

Bristol Rovers creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

0.81

creates per match

1.34

1.38

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Bristol Rovers

1.34

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Bristol Rovers

1.26

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Bristol Rovers-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

56%

Barrow or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

71%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

11%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

65%

Barrow 2+ goals

28%

Barrow 3+ goals

9%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

74%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

39%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

39%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.26 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Bristol Rovers attack 1.34 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barrow scores more

29%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

44%

Bristol Rovers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Sparkes

Bristol Rovers · M

8.5

Match Events

27'

T. Leigh↳ J. Sparkes

43'

L. Shipley← F. Anderson

53'

D. Rose← T. Barkhuizen

56'

F. Cavegn↳ J. Senior

64'

Angus MacDonald

69'

T. Walker← B. Jackson

90+3'

M. Rijks← F. Cavegn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowBristol

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots9

2Corners6

11Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target5

3Off Target2

3Blocked2

8Inside Box8

1Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

343Total Passes326

239Accurate Passes215

70%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides3