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Barrow vs Bolton — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Bolton
Bolton
D. Angus 20'
M. Jones 4'
C. Taylor 1'
A. Sarcevic 90+5'
E. Doyle 41'
P. Kioso 16'
10/20/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Barrow35%
×Draw27%
Bolton38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
1.19
Bolton
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 23 away

creates per match

Barrow
1.20
Bolton
1.39

allows per match

Barrow
1.12
Bolton
1.17

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
62%
Barrow or Bolton
73%
Draw or Bolton
65%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
15%
Bolton wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
70%
Barrow 2+ goals
33%
Barrow 3+ goals
12%
Bolton 1+ goals
71%
Bolton 2+ goals
36%
Bolton 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
48%
Bolton (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Bolton defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bolton attack 1.39 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barrow scores more
35%
level
27%
Bolton scores more
38%

Bolton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. SarcevicBoltonBolton · M
8.2

Match Events

1'
C. Taylor
4'
M. Jones
16'
P. Kioso↳ A. Crawford
20'
D. Angus↳ C. Taylor
28'
Harry Brockbank
41'
E. Doyle↳ A. Gnahoua
45'
Mike David Jones
46'
H. Biggins← C. Taylor
56'
Brandon Comley
56'
J. Reid← S. Quigley
57'
Yoan Zouma
66'
Bradley Barry
75'
L. Gordon← H. Brockbank
81'
R. Darcy← A. Crawford
90'
Connor Brown
90+2'
C. Brown← J. Kay
90+5'
A. Sarcevic

Possession

37%Barrow

Shots

9Barrow

Pass accuracy

45%Barrow

Statistics

BarrowBolton
Overview
37%Possession63%
9Total Shots14
3Corners6
16Fouls18
Shots
9Total Shots14
3On Target6
3Off Target2
3Blocked6
4Inside Box11
5Outside Box3
Passing
37%Possession63%
270Total Passes438
172Accurate Passes344
64%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls18
4Yellow Cards2
4Offsides5

Barrow 3 – 3 Bolton

Barrow and Bolton drew 3-3 in League Two on October 20, 2020.

Goals: C. Taylor (1'), M. Jones (4'), P. Kioso (16'), D. Angus (20'), E. Doyle (41'), A. Sarcevic (90+5').

Bolton controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Progression Solicitors Stadium in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.